Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Rajasthan में Congress पर जमकर बरसे PM Modi

लोकसभा चुनाव (Lok sabha Elections 2024) के मद्देनजर राजस्थान के टोंक-सवाई माधोपुर में कांग्रेस पर जमकर हमला बोला. उन्होंने कहा कि देश के विकास के लिए स्थायी सरकार जरूरी है. देश में एक बार फिर मोदी सरकार बनेगी. लोगों को बांटने की कोशिश हो रही है, जब भी हम बंटे हैं दुश्मन को फायदा हुआ है. कांग्रेस का राज होता तो आए दिन ब्लास्ट होते, OROP लागू नहीं होता. कांग्रेस के राज में आस्था का पालन मुश्किल है. कांग्रेस ने रामनवमी पर रोक लगा दी. कर्नाटक में हनुमान चालीसा पढ़ने पर पीटा गया.

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Opinion: Poll Sops: Why Voters Must Question Their Long-Term Feasibility Too

Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest Fiscal Monitor report, which discusses "fiscal policy in the great election year".  A previous edition of the Fiscal Monitor had highlighted a significant policy 'trilemma' stemming from...

1. Spending demands on national budgets due to wages, pensions, health care, industrial strategies, environmental concerns, defence, and Sustainable Development Goals;
2. Widespread political reluctance to increase taxes; 
3. The imperative to manage debt and deficits to ensure fiscal stability and financial sustainability

Additionally, escalating interest rates and dimming medium-term growth forecasts complicate debt management. However, according to the IMF, this trilemma would exert a heavy influence globally as 88 countries go to polls this year. The IMF has warned against fiscal slippages this election year.

Tailored Policies

There is no dearth of evidence for such slippages. The Political Business Cycle Theory by William Nordhaus (1975) suggests that elected officials may manipulate economic policies to engineer favourable economic outcomes around election time. In particular, it posits that governments tend to increase public spending and cut taxes to boost economic activity and improve their electoral prospects, even if this may lead to larger deficits and greater long-term debt burdens.

However, India has diverged from this typical scenario in recent years. Instead of succumbing to the temptation of interim budgets that primarily focus on short-term gains and securing votes through new subsidies and other financial incentives, recent approaches by the Union government have prioritised long-term fiscal discipline over populist measures, highlighting a decade of economic stability and empowerment. This marks a departure from the predicted bias towards fiscal slippages in election years.

The concept of fiscal sustainability in welfare states hinges significantly on the notion of fiscal space, which Peter S. Heller defined as the ability of a government to allocate resources for specific goals without compromising on financial health. The challenge of securing such a fiscal space is multifaceted. It requires strategies to generate the necessary funds to meet social obligations while simultaneously ensuring that these financial mechanisms do not stifle economic growth or disrupt fiscal stability. Authors like Marcel (2014) and Harris (2013), along with Ortiz et al. in multiple works emphasise the balance required to manage welfare expenditures and revenue generation.

Questioning Fiscal Proposals Too

While there is a lot of literature on fiscal slippage before elections, there needs to be more focus on how fiscal sustainability is affected after elections when a new government is installed. Often, a new government may become fiscally imprudent in its quest to deliver on pre-poll promises, some of which might be financially ill-judged. Such promises often crowd out capital expenditure, which has a higher multiplier effect on the economy and people's overall well-being. One example of this is poll promises made by the current Karnataka government. Last February, an economic adviser to the state's chief minister claimed that "five poll guarantees is imposing a huge financial burden on the exchequer and exerting significant pressure on the state's economy".
 
This brings us to a wider debate on empowerment vs. freebies in social policy. While in some cases, cash and subsidies are necessary, political parties and governments should think more about empowering people rather than just doling out freebies.

Entitlement vs Empowerment

Instead of merely providing cash, empowering individuals through social policy can enhance personal agency and reduce the fiscal burden on government resources. There already is substantial theoretical and empirical evidence to support this. The argument draws on Amartya Sen's 'Capability Approach', which emphasises giving people the means to pursue their conception of a good life.
 
Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee's work found that initiatives aimed at enhancing the skills and productive capabilities of the poor (like vocational training and microfinance) can lead to sustained economic improvements and reduced reliance on state-provided benefits. This further supports the case for promoting empowerment over entitlement.

The intersection of entitlement and empowerment is crucial for sustainable development. While entitlement lays the foundation by establishing legal rights and frameworks that recognise and protect women's rights, empowerment ensures that women have the practical means to utilise these rights to improve their lives and impact their communities. Duflo's research, for example, illustrates how this can bring about improved development outcomes.

The Perils Of Macroeconomic Instability

Freebies announced by several parties during the elections are expansionary. They might widen the fiscal deficit sharply. At the same time, they may hurt macroeconomic stability in the long run and affect private corporate capex recovery. Macroeconomic instability, marked by fluctuations in GDP, inflation rates and employment levels, directly impacts government budgets and expenditures. During economic downturns, reduced tax revenues and increased demand for welfare programmes can strain public finances, necessitating cuts in other areas or more borrowing. This financial pressure may lead to reduced investments in critical long-term social programmes such as education, healthcare, and social security.

Additionally, persistent instability often exacerbates income inequality, and those from lower socioeconomic backgrounds bear the brunt of economic downturns. This widening gap can compel policy adjustments to address disparities through measures like progressive taxation and targeted social assistance. It also necessitates policies aimed at promoting social cohesion and inclusive growth to maintain political and social stability.
 
Moreover, economic volatility complicates long-term planning and the implementation of social policies. This underlines the need for flexibility and resilience in policy frameworks. Health and educational outcomes can deteriorate during recessions due to reduced spending, and this calls for policies that can adapt and prioritise these sectors even during tough economic times. In the longer term, macroeconomic instability also affects demographic patterns and can influence birth rates and migration.

Balancing Short-Term Gains With Long-Term Feasibility

It's thus necessary to judge political parties not just on the promises they make but also on the fiscal plans they propose to service those promises sustainably. Political campaigns often feature a plethora of pledges designed to attract various voter groups. Yet, the feasibility of these promises needs to be addressed.

The true measure of responsible governance should be the ability of a party to articulate how it will balance short-term electoral incentives with the long-term fiscal health of the economy. This will encourage the evolution of a more informed electorate and promote policies that are not just appealing in the short run but also beneficial and sustainable in the long term.
 
(Bibek Debroy (@bibekdebroy) is Chairman, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister. Aditya Sinha (@adityasinha004) is Officer on Special Duty, Research, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister)

Disclaimer: These are the personal views of the authors

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Elections in Maldives: India Madlives Relations के लिहाज़ से ये Election किस तरह अहम साबित हो सकता है?

Maldives Elections 2024: मालदीव में राष्ट्रपति चुनाव और संसदीय चुनाव अलग अलग होते हैं। बहुदलीय व्यवस्था के तहत मालदीव का ये चौथा संसदीय चुनाव है। इस संसदीय चुनाव से पहले संसद में इब्राहिम मोहम्मद सोलीह और मोहम्मद नशीद की मालदीवियन डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी का दबदबा है जो कि भारत के साथ नज़दीकी संबंधों की हिमायती रही है…पिछले दिनों राष्ट्रपति मुइज्जू के दिए भारत विरोधी बयान के चलते इसका सीधा असर चुनाव पर देखने को मिल सकता है. अगर विपक्ष की सरकार बनती है तो राष्ट्रपति मुइज्जू के लिए ये दिक्कत की बात हो सकती है
 

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This Startup By IIT Graduates Is Helping India Switch To Solar Energy

A startup fronted by IIT graduates is trying to help India to switch to solar energy. Solar Square is involved in rooftop solar installation in the country. NDTV's Nikunj Garg speaks to the CEO of Solar Square, Shreya Mishra, who is hopeful that solar power will become a staple in households though currently it is used in less than 1% homes in India.

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Review: LSD 2 - Stumper Of A Film Embraces Its Campy, Pulpy Spirit

There is a dichotomy in Love Sex Aur Dhokha 2 that makes itself instantly apparent. The film probes the not-so-secret virtual lives of a generation of youngsters with severely limited attention spans even as it demands complete focus on its bewilderingly whimsical flow of images and sounds. You take your eyes off the screen or let your mind wander for a split second and you are at risk of missing a crucial piece of information or a prickly flash of an image that is meant to speaks volumes. With its constant zaniness and unpredictability, the film's rhythm reflects the untamable impatience of technology-obsessed, instant fame-seeking influencers and YouTubers who inhabit a world of their own for better or for worse.

LSD 2 reveals the many ways in which violence, physical and psychological, is perpetrated on those who exist within the heady bubble and also on those who live outside it. This outright stumper of a film embraces its campy, pulpy spirit with all its might as it satirizes society that is led by technology in directions that it cannot fully grasp, not as yet at nay rate. By the time LSD 3 happens, we will probably know better.

For the moment, LSD 2 raises questions, some playful, others pointed, even profound, about a world in which fake, nearly always, trumps fact. There is a heavy price to be paid for the surrender to the lure of constantly evolving technology, as the three principal characters in the film discover mostly at their own expense.

Written by director and co-producer Dibakar Banerjee with Prateek Vats and Shubham (the writers of Eeb Allay Ooo!), the Ekta Kapoor-produced LSD 2 repeats the three-part interlinked structure of LSD, which was made nearly a decade and a half ago and addressed the impact of recording devices that impinged on people's privacy and endangered their lives and mental well-being.

In the 14 years that have elapsed between the two films, both the hardware and the software have evolved to a point where the line between the real and the virtual, and the tangible and the deepfake, can be erased at the push of a button.

Gen Z appears to thrive on leading double lives but, as a result of the vanishing margins between the imagined and the factual, many are increasingly falling prey to manipulation and the danger of self-harm. That is the principal thematic burden of LSD 2 although it isn't in the least interested in telling the audience what to make of the plight of the people it is about.

Exploring gender fluidity in a manner that isn't remotely self-conscious, LSD 2 replaces the subheads of Love, Sex and Dhokha with Like, Share and Download. Each segment portrays the struggles of individuals trying to leap out of the boxes that a myopic society shoves them into, then slams the lid shut and keeps strict vigil on them.

In the first segment, a transwoman, Noor (Paritosh Tiwari), who aspires to be an acclaimed actress, is a participant in a garish reality show - it is called Truth Ya Naach. It requires her to put her life under the public spotlight. Noor goes on and off camera with an eye on higher ratings as her rivals snap at her heels and keep her on her toes.

The producers of the show - in the judges' seats are Sophie Chaudhry, Tusshar Kapoor and Anu Malik (the only one of the three who does not play himself) - manipulate her into a reunion with her estranged mother (Swaroopa Ghosh). The mother's first reaction on seeing Noor after a two-year hiatus is "dublaa ho gaya hai". She is still averse to accepting her altered sexual identity.

Anu Malik's character throws a fit when the mother croons and the daughter dances to the song. Ordering the duo to stop, he thunders: "Maa se badhkar kuch nahin hain". He follows that up with a mushy ode to motherhood. It is apparent that his outburst is scripted. The ratings go through the roof and it is revealed that this bit of the show has been sponsored "Maa Ki Mamta Aata (Mother's Love Flour).

With the ratings and the truth meter - a method to measure the veracity of statements that the participants make on the show - yo-yo-ing wildly, Noor is under constant pressure to 'perform' her transition for the consumption of the audience.

Her process of gender assertion is reduced to a game controlled by the producers of the show, the sponsors, the public at large and, last but not the least, the anti-vulgarity clause in the rules that govern broadcasting. Technology and a society that is in voyeuristic mode 24/7, personal desire has been snatched away by the collective will of those whose ''likes" can make or break the show.

The next part of LSD 2, too, has a third-gender character, Kulu (Bonita Rajpurohit), struggling with the consequences of being who she is. She is strapped for cash and unapologetic about using her body to earn her a few rupees more.

Kulu works on the cleaning team at a Metro Rail station in Delhi. Her boss, Lovina Singh (Swastika Mukherjee), single mother of a school-going boy (who turns out to be the link between this story and the next), feigns sympathy for her employee when she gets into serious trouble and is in danger of losing her job.

Under mounting pressure from the head honcho, Lovina does her best to control the damage that the negative publicity for her company - which seeks mileage out of giving employment to transgenders - but with every move that she makes she only succeeds in exposing her own and her firm's double standards.

It isn't only in the virtual world that things are phony. In fact, if things are fake in the images and claims that float around in a hyper-connected universe, they are only a reflection of all the pretence that is constantly sought to be passed off as fact.

That is exactly what 18-year-old school boy Shubham Narang (Abhinav Singh), Game Paapi in the virtual world, does in his avatar as a hyper-masculine dude. Artificial intelligence, virtual reality and metaverses have flip sides that extract a high price from those who play along and lose themselves in the dead-end algorithm-driven labyrinths.

The great thing about a Dibakar Banerjee film is that it never fails to spring surprises. LSD 2 has more than its share of fearless flights of fancy. Some land, some don't. But that takes little away. Even when it tends to be baffling, the film makes you think.

If that is the kind of cinema that excites you, LSD 2 might be well worth your time.

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How Many Lok Sabha Seats Will BJP Win In South India? Revanth Reddy Says...

Telangana Chief Minister Revanth Reddy has predicted the Bharatiya Janata Party will struggle for traction among South Indian voters, and win fewer than 15 of the region's 130 Lok Sabha seats. In the run-up to the 2024 general election, the BJP has gone all-out to expand its presence in the southern states, with a particular focus on Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made over a dozen visits to those states over the past few weeks in a bid to drum up support. That support, Revanth Reddy told NDTV, is unlikely to appear.

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Jammu Artisan Designs Dogra Turbans For PM Modi, Amit Shah

Munish Singh Jamwal, a master turban maker from Jammu, has risen to fame with his unparalleled craftsmanship and expertise in creating exquisite turbans. His artistry has caught the eyes of top political leaders in the past, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi. During an election rally on April 12, PM Modi donned a magnificent Dogra turban meticulously designed by Mr Jamwal. His latest commission involved crafting a striking turban worn by Home Minister Amit Shah during the election rally in Jammu on Tuesday.

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